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Tempus: A few home truths on big-yield housebuilders

After this weeks sell-off in the housebuilding sector, investors could be forgiven for thinking that value opportunities may just be emerging for buyers. A close look at the fundamental financial health of each company is needed, however, before being tempted in by what seem to be mouth-watering yields. All the big housebuilders have insisted that they should be able to maintain the average sales prices of their new homes this year. That confidence may be hard to maintain, however, as bank and building society lenders retreat from the loans market. Halifax, meanwhile, has reported prices that fell on average by 2.5 per cent in March and has now revised its forecast of flat house prices for 2008 to one of modest falls. Morgan Stanley fears a peak-to-trough fall of 20 per cent over the next two years. New research on housebuilding out today from Shore Capital brokers forecasts price falls on average in the new homes sector of 7.5 per cent this year and next, reversing the new-build price increases of the past two years. If the prediction is right, housebuilders revenues and profits will be hit this year and next. The price of land could also fall by up to 55 per cent, which would undermine valuations ascribed at present to housebuilders long land banks. Shares in Persimmon, Britains most valuable housebuilder, rose 3p yesterday to 690p, but have fallen by about 80p this month. They are now trading at less than half last years high and close to a three-year low. Persimmon has gearing of about 31 per cent, down from 78 per cent two years ago, when it completed its

Added: 2008-04-10

Tempus: A few home truths on big-yield housebuilders

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